The Energy Crisis

• Peak demand is up to 36,000 megawatts.  On May 30, the ISO controlled units that were offline finally dropped below 10,000 megawatts.  The Palo Verde nuclear reactor has restarted.
• Although reactor 3 of San Onofre had been serviced early, a fire there has delayed it restart, at its 1,100 megawatt power.   It will not restart until June. (The oldest reactor, number 1, has been permanently shut down.)
• The Qualifying Facilities are small generators not listed in the ISO outage page.  On May 30 they had 900 megawatts out, although that can change rapidly.
• More than 11,000 megawatts production from nuclear, hydroelectric and coal are still owned by PG&E and Edison.
• California's electricity usage growth has been 15% from 1990-2000.
• California has not built a new power plant in the last ten years.  Some new ones are now under construction.  Part of the reason is that residents do not want power plants or power lines in their residential or business areas.
• California is now finding some 3,000 megawatts a day from out of state.
• Some 40% of the state's capacity comes from facilities more than 30 years of age, making them prone to equipment problems (Time.com).
• The rolling blackouts have been mainly in Northern California because Southern California has enough power, but there is not sufficient power lines to carry more power to Northern California.
• Despite President Bush's call to forgo environmental restrictions, they only affect one plant, and the restrictions are federal.
• There is also much reluctance to sell to the California utilities, which have been forgoing payments.
• The three stages of alert are Stage 1: at 7% of reserves, Stage 2: at 5% of reserves, and Stage 3: at 1.5% of reserves.
• The rolling blackouts start at Stage 3, since an overload could shut down the entire grid, even extending beyond California.
• At Stage 2, a plan to limit power to firms or schools that have agreed to have power cut in return for lower electricity has now been discontinued because of the commercial disruptions it was causing.
• In recent days, conservation has lowered demand by as much as 1,000 megawatts.
• The main link between Southern and Northern California, Path 15, can only carry 3,000 megawatts to the North.  It consists of two lines run at 500 kilovolts.
• The state has contracts for 1,800 megawatts of power from the Pacific Northwest this summer, which is probably all that it will get, compared to the 3,000 to 5,000 megawatts that it usually gets.
• The Sierra snowpack is only 60% of average this year to feed our own hydroelectric power plants.
• Currently, there are 13,000 megawatts out of production, and an additional 3,000 megawatts of alternate energy sources not present due to their not getting paid.
• Governor Davis proposed his own rate increase, which will be tiered, and average 26.5%.  He asks for conservation to reduce the load 10%.
• There are 1,000,000 extra refrigerators in California, using as much power as 200,000 households.
• On April 6, Pacific Gas and Electric filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.  It is the biggest utility in U.S. history to seek bankruptcy protection, and the third largest company.
• PG&E supplies from 14,000 to 22,000 megawatts.
• In 1999, electricity cost the state $7.4 billion, in 2000, $32 billion, and in 2001 it will be $65 billion, according to George Brown of the PUC (LA Times, April 9).  During that time the demand only increased 2% to 4%.  The state's natural gas transportation costs rose 3,200% in one year.
• The state had been spending $46 million a day on energy purchases, and that has increased to $73 million a day since the Pacific Gas and Electric bankruptcy filing and the shortage of Northwest power.
• California gets 60% of its power from "native load" generated or controlled by utilities in California at about 5.5 cents/kwh.
• The other 40% are bought on the wholesale market, at over 25 cents/kwh.  (LA Times, March 6, P. Navarro op-ed.)
• A study (LA Times April 21) estimates that each undelivered megawatt-hour of electricity causes $16,000 of lost economic output.  The California economy could be out as much as $16 billion this summer, with Silicon Valley and the Bay Area the hardest hit.
• Blackouts are back!  On May 7, about 100,000 users were blacked out for an hour starting at 4:45 pm, since it was a hot day.  Also, some industries on the lower rate "interruptible" plan came back on line later in the day.  12,500 megawatts were unavailable.  34,000 were Edison customers, 54,000 PG&E, and 8,600 SDG&E.
• On May 8, rolling blackouts were present for two hours, affecting 300,000 users.  This was due to record high inland temperatures for this date.
• Still out are Diablo Canyon unit 2 (planned, 1100 megawatts) and San Onofre unit 3 (unplanned, 1100 megawatts).
• SFGate reports:
• By July 1 there will be only 1698 megawatts of new power, and by Sept. 1 only 3669 new megawatts.
• CALISO will have a risk of outages at 40,000 megawatts, which occured on 34 days last summer, and depends on the weather.
• April conservation was 2900 megawatts, or about 7.5% of the CALISO total.
• The San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank estimated that Californians will be paying an EXTRA $750 this year for the power crisis.  Only part, $250, is extra in our direct electricity bills (bringing the total to $900), $200 extra for natural gas (bringing the total to $450), and  $300 for indirect costs from power-related surcharges and price hikes.  The increases are equal to 1.5% of the median household income.
• The state assembly on May 7 approved $13.4 billion in bonds.
• Spot prices for electricity are $510/megawatt-hour (51 cents/kwh), and on May 8 the state is short 2,000 megawatts.
• Businesses in office buildings have little reason to conserve as CPUC Rule 18 prohibits landlords from using submeters to assess energy costs to tenants.  The leases contain the power costs.  Office electricity use is: indoor lighting 39%; office equipment and water pumps 22%; cooling 18%; ventilation 12%; outdoor lighting 6%; and heating 2%.
• Tuesday, May 8, prices rose to $500 per megawatt hour, from $350 to $400 before the heat on Monday.  Blackouts were avoided Wednesday by paying $1,900 per megawatt hour, over 50  times the rate a year ago.
• In the first quarter of the year, the following was paid for electricity in California:  1999, $1.2 billion; 2000, $1.8 billion; 2001, $10.3 billion.
• Standby power to TV, VCR and other appliances is almost 10% of residential use, according to Alan Meier of LBNL at Berkeley (LA  Times, May 31).  This can cost $100 per year per residence.  The biggest drains, at about 10 watts, are compact audio systems, security systems, internet terminals, and cable boxes.  Maximum standby drain from such items can be 20 to 30 watts.  Surge suppressor are good for possible interruptions, and can allow you to turn off appliances unless they will lose their settings.
• Between 1990 and now, total residential use has risen 17.6% from 68,000 gigawatt hours to 80,000 gigawatt hours.
• Dynegy had revenues of $14.2 billion in the first quarter of 2001, compared to $5.3 billion in the first quarter a year ago.  Enron revenues increased to $50.1 billion from $13 billion during the same quarters.
• While the administration says that they are not going to do anything about the California energy crises, that is only partly true.  Those making money off of the energy crises with energy or oil stocks are Karl Rove, the top presidential advisor and chief political strategist; Condoleezza Rice, the National Security Advisor; Lewis Libby, the Vice President's Chief of Staff; Karen Hughes, the president's counselor; Clay Johnson, the president's personnel chief; and Nicholas Calio, the White House director of legislative affairs (LA Times, June 2).
• On hot summer afternoons, air conditioning can consume 16,000 megawatts, or 30% of the electricity used (LA Times, June 3).
• Half of all homes have air conditioners, and 60% of all new construction.
• On average, from May through September, an air conditioner uses 360 kwh/month.
• A typical whole house unit is rated at 3 ton, with each ton equal to 12,000 BTU.
• Air conditioners of 10-12 years old have SEER energy efficiency ratings of 6 to 8, while new high efficiency models have SEERS of 12.  Room air conditioners are up to 70% more efficient.
• The price of natural gas and electricity is dropping (LA Times, Wednesday, June 6).
• Electricity is down to $110 per megawatt hour at daytime Tuesday and $20 per megawatt hour at night, as opposed to $500 to $800 per megawatt hour last month, as reported by the Automated Power Exchange that handles less than 10% of the state's market.
• California was spending less than $50 million per day for power purchases.  Reasons for the decline are:
• California used 11% less energy in May than a year earlier.
• Also there was mild weather, increased hydroelectric generation and lower natural gas prices.
• It also may be a result of the FERC order for caps at Stage I.
• Natural gas is 16% cheaper for June for SC Gas Co., and 38% cheaper for PG&E Co.
• At Topock, Arizona, the price fell to $7.85/million BTU last Friday, the lowest since mid-November.
• This is due to increased storage, a nationwide drop in fuel costs, and more shippers since the El Paso contract on the pipeline expired.  It is also due to a decline in markups, which are under investigation by FERC.

The Residential Equivalent of 1,000 megawatts of Electricity

• The LA times continues to equate 1,000 megawatts to 750,000 households.  When peak usage is at 36,000 megawatts, and the California population is at 34 million,  1,000 megawatts equates to 1 million persons, through all household, commercial and industrial usages.  Occasionally they qualify that to saying that the ratio depends on the season and temperature.
• Average household use in California in 1999 was 548 kwh/month of 720 hours or an average of 0.8 kilowatts/household, rather than 1.3 kw/household as they calculate.  The US average per household in 1999 was 866 kwh/month.
• Total electricity sales in California in 1999 were 235 million megawatt-hours to 13 million customers.  75.3 million megawatt-hours of that was to 11.4 million residential customers.  That averages to 8,600 megawatts for residential use, and 0.75 kilowatts per residential customer.  The ratio of residential to all usage is 75.3/235 = 32%, consistent with the national average.
• How can the average usage per person be 1 kilowatt and the average residential usage be 0.75 kilowatts per residential customer, yet the ratio of residential to total usage be 0.32?  If there are 2.3 people per residence, then the ratio is 0.75/(2.3x1) = 0.33.
• The correct  usage of 1,000 megawatts is1,000 megawatts x (1000 kilowatts/megawatt) / (0.75 kilowatts/residence) = 1.3 million households.

How to Judge the Cost of Electricity at Peak Times

• If an average manufacturing employee in California is earning $50,000 a year for 2,000 hours work, that is $25 per hour.
• That worker on average is using 1 kilowatt of electricity.  At a peak price of $1,000 per megawatt hour, say, which is $1 per kwh,  that is only 4% of the $25 per hour in salary or other support for the worker.  It is silly to idle a worker for such a small fraction of their salary, and the state is right still paying such a high peak price.  Of course it is far cheaper and more successful if we only conserve 10% to avoid such price squeezing.
• To judge the cost of cooking dinner even at a peak time, my grill runs at 850 watts for 15 minutes, using less than a quarter kilowatt hour, or 25 cents to cook dinner at even $1 per kwh. Under the new PUC rate scheme, even at the highest bracket of 25 cents/kwh, that would cost only 6 cents. Similarly, microwaves run from 650 to 1,000 watts, and my toaster oven runs at 500 watts for a half hour to cook which again uses a quarter of a kwh.
• Of course I am not in any way justifying the high prices, but just making an argument to keep the power on if possible, until the problem is solved.  Also, I am not running major mechanical appliances during peak times.

How the Cost of Natural Gas Contributes to the Cost of Electricity

• With natural gas running up to $15 per million BTU, the energy producers claim that that is the principal reason that they must charge such a high price.
• By the  units page  we find that 1 million BTU is equivalent to 300 kwh at 100% efficient conversion.  If electric energy plants are run at 50% efficiency, that $15 for a million BTU will produce 150 kwh of usable electricity giving 1500 cents/150 kwh or 10 cents/kwh, or $100/ megawatt hour.  So any charges much above $100/megawatt hour are NOT due to the cost of the natural gas!
• The $100/megawatt hour from the natural gas is well covered by the new S. C. Edison average PUC approved rate of $148 per megawatt hour.